According to Oxford Economics, GVA takes a dip of 9.8% in 2020, which aligns with forecasts made in October 2020. However, although GVA began to increase again in 2021, full recovery is now anticipated this year. Like employment, recovery differs across sectors. Accommodation and food services, one of the most vulnerable sectors throughout the pandemic, is anticipated to grow from 2021 continuously to 2030, with pre-pandemic levels returning in 2022. A similar picture is seen in other sectors, such as Administrative and support, Arts, entertainment and recreation and Human Health and Social Care. Comparatively, Agriculture, forestry and fishing is not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels, whilst Mining and Quarrying is experiencing a continuous decline.
The next forecasts will be available at the end of April 2022.